TMJ INSIDER
Days 15–20 of the U.S.-Israeli War on Iran and Lebanon
As the US-Israeli war waged on Iran reaches its third week, the cracks in Washington’s strategy are no longer subtle - they’re widening with every strike. What began as an expanded bombing campaign, including hits on the South Pars gas field, has triggered immediate blowback. Energy infrastructure is now fair game.
Iran’s tightening grip on the Strait of Hormuz has evolved from a regional warning into a global economic threat challenging the petrodollar system itself. The US finds itself increasingly isolated with strained support by NATO allies, forcing it to pivot awkwardly away from Gulf reliance to the Islamic Republic, already easing select sanctions on Iranian oil.
Week three has exposed a deeper structural problem. US strategy is built for the bygone Cold War era of zero-sum games. Iran’s asymmetric playbook does not simply resist this order, but threatens to reshape it.
As Ramadan gives way to Eid al Fitr, the region stands at a major inflection point. What emerges may not just redraw power lines in West Asia, but return a measure of agency to the Muslim world if regional states choose to break from Washington’s security orbit.
Escalation Inside Iran
U.S.–Israeli strikes expanded significantly this week, targeting new regions and critical infrastructure.
First strikes in northern Iran, including naval infrastructure in the Caspian Sea
Targeting of energy infrastructure, including the South Pars gas field
Continued strikes on major cities, including Tehran and residential areas
This marks a shift toward broader, sustained strikes across the country.
Assassinations of senior officials
This week saw a sharp escalation through the targeting of Iran’s leadership and command structure.
Assassination of Ali Larijani, head of the Supreme National Security Council
Assassination of Major General Gholamreza Soleimani, head of the Basij Organization
Assassination of Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib, along with members of his family and team
Killing of IRGC spokesperson Ali Mohammad Naeini
The pace of these assassinations signals a shift toward systematic targeting of Iran’s political and military leadership.
Iran’s retaliation evolves
Iran’s response escalated in both scale and capability.
First use of the Sejjil solid-fuel missile
Strikes on critical Israeli infrastructure, including Haifa’s oil refinery and Ben Gurion Airport
Expanded targeting of U.S. military bases across the region
A U.S. F-35 fighter jet was reportedly struck during operations over Iran, forcing an emergency landing
Continued large-scale missile waves, now reaching over 60 coordinated operations
This reflects a shift toward sustained, strategic pressure on both Israel and U.S. forces.
War expands across the region
The conflict is no longer contained to Iran and Israel.
Direct strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE
Damage to LNG facilities, disrupting global energy supply
Attacks near Dubai and major industrial zones
Iran launches long-range ballistic missiles at a UK-US military base on the island of Diego Garcia.
The war is now fully regional, affecting both military and economic systems.
Lebanon becomes an active front
The Lebanon front intensified into sustained combat.
Israel expanded ground operations in southern Lebanon
Hezbollah carried out large-scale operations, including destroying multiple Merkava tanks
Increased direct clashes and ambushes along the border
Long-range rocket strikes reaching new distances
This marks a shift from exchanges to active battlefield engagement.
Energy war and economic pressure
Energy infrastructure is now central to the conflict.
Oil prices surged, with Brent crude moving above $100 per barrel amid supply disruptions
Major damage to oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf
The United States was forced to temporarily ease sanctions on Iranian oil exports in an attempt to stabilize global energy markets
Shipping and energy flows remain disrupted across the region
This signals that the war is now directly impacting global energy markets and forcing policy shifts at the highest level.
International fractures widen
Global divisions over the war are becoming more visible.
No allies have joined the proposed U.S. naval coalition in the Strait of Hormuz
European governments rejected involvement, calling it “not NATO’s war”
The U.S. is preparing to escalate, requesting $200 billion in additional funding
Internal dissent has emerged, including a high-level resignation
This reflects growing international resistance and lack of unified support.
What this means
Week 3 marks a shift from a contained conflict to a multi-front regional war.
Leadership is being targeted.
Energy systems are under attack.
And the conflict is expanding across the region.
Below are some of our latest videos, interviews, and articles from the past few days that are worth your time.
Must-Watch This Week
"Israel has Full Control of our Intelligence:" Lt. COL Karen Kwiatkowski
Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski joins TMJ News to break down the rapidly escalating U.S.–Israel war on Iran, challenging the official narrative coming out of Washington and raising concerns about intelligence failures and strategic miscalculations. Drawing on her experience inside the Pentagon, Kwiatkowski offers a rare insider perspective on the decisions driving this conflict, warning that it risks becoming another costly and un-winnable mistake with far-reaching consequences for the U.S. and beyond.
What Inspires Iran and Shia Muslims to Stand Against the Zionist Empire?
Most people are not aware why the event of Ashura is cited by Islamic resistance factions in modern political discourse, or what it actually signifies beneath the surface. Few understand that it traces back to a defining moment in Islamic history over 1400 years ago, when Prophet Muhammad’s grandson, Imam Hussain, refused to pay allegiance to the tyrant of his time, Yazid ibn Muawiyah. Hussain chose dignity, justice, and resistance over humiliation, injustice, and submission, even when faced with certain death. Few are aware that Ashura is not simply a historical tragedy, but a living principle that represents standing against oppression no matter the odds, inspiring generations through its message of sacrifice, faith, and moral courage. Yet today, it is often reduced to a slogan or stripped of its deeper meaning, even as it continues to shape movements, revolutions, and resistance across the Muslim world. When something this central is invoked but rarely explained, it raises a deeper question: how much of what we hear today is missing the historical and spiritual context that gives it its true meaning?
As the war continues to unfold, we’ll keep sharing daily updates across our platforms, while using this newsletter each week to step back and recap the developments that shaped the week.
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